Risk Estimates Research Articles

Lifetime and 10-year risks of cardiovascular mortality in relation to risk factors in middle and old age: 50-year follow-up of the Whitehall study of London Civil Servants

BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality has declined substantially in the United Kingdom (UK) in recent decades, but the continued relevance of conventional risk factors for prediction of CVD mortality throughout the life-course is uncertain. We compared the 10-year risks and lifetime risks of CVD mortality associated with conventional risk factors recorded in middle and old age. MethodsThe Whitehall study was a prospective study of 19,019 male London civil servants (mean age 52 years) when enrolled in 1967–1970 and followed-up for 50 years for cause-specific mortality. In 1997, 7044 (83%) survivors (mean age 77 years) were re-surveyed. The 10-year and lifetime risks of CVD mortality were estimated by levels of CVD risk factors recorded in middle-age and old-age, respectively. ResultsBy July 2020, 97% had died (22%, 51% and 80% before age 70, 80 and 90 years, respectively) and 7944 of 17,673 deaths (45%) were from CVD. The 10-year and lifetime risks of CVD death increased linearly with higher levels of CVD risk factors recorded in middle-age and in old-age. Individuals in the top versus bottom 5% of CVD risk scores in middle age had a 10.3% (95% CI:7.2–13.4) vs 0.6% (0.1–1.2) 10-year risk of CVD mortality, a 61.4% (59.4–65.3) vs 31.3% (24.1–34.5) lifetime risk of CVD mortality and a 12-year difference in life expectancy from age 50 years. The corresponding differences using a CVD risk score in old-age were 11.0% (4.4–17.5) vs 0.8% (0.0–2.2) for 10-year risk and 42.1% (28.2–50.0) vs 30.3% (6.0–38.0) for lifetime risk of CVD mortality and a 6-year difference in life expectancy from age 70 years. ConclusionsConventional risk factors remained highly predictive of CVD mortality and life expectancy through the life-course. The findings highlight the relevance of estimation of both lifetime risks of CVD and 10-year risks of CVD for primary prevention of CVD.

An assessment of the probability of patients experiencing bone pain for early prioritization to the rehabilitation clinic

Background: As a result of DEXA and risk factor-based evaluation, which rank patients according to their osteoporosis risk, risk assessment instruments such as the Osteoporosis Self-assessment Tool, Risk Assessment Instrument, and Simple Calculated Risk Estimation were created. Aims: In two phases, the precision of evaluation instruments will be assessed: pre-test, post-test, and pre-diagnostic DEXA will be utilised to determine the accuracy of the assessment tools and pre-test, respectively. Methods: From September to November 2021, this study examines osteoporosis patients at Prince Rashid bin Al-Hasan Military Hospital in Jordan. Bayes' theorem and osteoporosis screening methodologies are utilised to calculate the post-test probability of patients. Evaluation of AUROC and performance metrics will be conducted utilising a ROC curve. The term of the investigation is 2021-2021. Results: The gender distribution of the 206 patients examined in the study was 5.87:1. AUCs SEMs for the binary logistic regression models incorporating independent variables (OST, ORAI, and BAQ) varied in response to the probability of FRAX≥3% versus <3%. FRAX% exhibited the following sensitivity indices: 0.02, 75%, 41.36%, 66.36%, and 41.03%. The innovative quotient (BAQ), which represents the ratio of body weight to age, had respective pre-test probabilities of 0.789±0.033, 0.484±0.042, and 0.254±0.037. Conclusion: The research examined the probability of BLR_BAQ after the test was conducted using OST and ORAI references. Significant AUROCs were observed for all three osteoporosis instruments; however, the performance of the post-test probabilities for FRAX≥3% of the BLR_BAQ model was subpar, as evidenced by both the standards and ORAI inference.

Association and biological pathways between lung function and incident depression: a prospective cohort study of 280,032 participants

BackgroundLung health is increasingly recognized as an essential factor in mental health. However, prospective evidence on lung function with incident depression remains to be determined. The study aimed to examine the prospective association between impaired lung function and incident depression and the underlying biological mechanisms.MethodsThis prospective cohort study comprised 280,032 non-depressed individuals with valid lung function measurements from the UK Biobank. Lung function was assessed through the forced vital capacity (FVC) or forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1). Cox proportional hazard models were applied to estimate the associations between lung function and incident depression. Mediation analyses were fitted to investigate the potential mediating role of biomarkers and metabolites in the association.ResultsA total of 9514 participants (3.4%) developed depression during a median follow-up of 13.91 years. Individuals in the highest quartile had a lower risk of depression (FVC % predicted: HR = 0.880, 95% CI = 0.830–0.933; FEV1% predicted: HR = 0.854, 95% CI = 0.805–0.905) compared with those in the lowest quartile of the lung function indices. Additionally, the restricted cubic splines suggested lung function indices had reversed J-shaped associations with incident depression (nonlinear P < 0.05 for FVC % predicted and FEV1% predicted). Impaired lung function yielded similar risk estimates (HR = 1.124, 95% CI = 1.074–1.176). Biomarkers involving systemic inflammation, erythrocytes, and liver and renal function may be potential mediators in the lung function-depression association.ConclusionsThis study revealed that the higher risk of developing depression was associated with impaired lung function. Also, the association might be partially mediated by biomarkers including systemic inflammation, erythrocytes, and liver and renal function, though these mediation findings should be interpreted with caution due to potential temporal ambiguity.

Ticks - public health risks in urban green spaces

BackgroundUrban green spaces are important for human health, but they may expose visitors to tick-borne diseases. This not only presents a potential public health challenge but also undermines the expected public health gains from urban green spaces. The aim of this study is to assess the public health risk of tick-borne diseases in an urban green space used for recreation in Stockholm, Sweden.MethodsWe used a mixed method approach identifying both the magnitude of the tick hazard and the extent of the human exposure to tick-borne diseases. At six entry points to an urban green space, we sampled ticks and documented microhabitat conditions from five randomly assigned 2 m × 2 m plots. Surrounding habitat data was analyzed using geographical information system (GIS). Nymphs and adult ticks were tested for Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato and Anaplasma phagocytophilum using TaqMan qPCR. Positive B. burgdorferi (s.l.) ticks were further analyzed by nested PCR amplification and sequence analysis. Population census data and visitor count data were used to estimate the degree of human exposure to tick-borne diseases. To further understand the degree to which visitors get in contact with infected ticks we also conducted interviews with visitors to green spaces.ResultsHigh tick densities were commonly found in humid broadleaved forest with low field vegetation. High pathogen prevalence was significantly correlated with increasing proportions of artificial areas. Integrating the tick hazard with human exposure we found that the public health risk of tick-borne diseases was moderate to high at most of the studied entry points. Many of the visitors frequently used urban green spaces. Walking was the most common activity, but visitors also engaged in activities with higher risk for tick encounters. Individual protective measures were connected to specific recreational activities such as picking berries or mushrooms.ConclusionsThe number of visitors can be combined with tick inventory data and molecular analyses of pathogen prevalence to make crude estimations of the public health risk of tick-borne diseases in urban green spaces. The risk of encountering infected ticks is omnipresent during recreational activities in urban green spaces, highlighting the need for public health campaigns to reduce the risk of tick-borne diseases.

Understanding familial risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a deadly disease that is the result of an accumulation of sequential genetic alterations. These genetic alterations can either be inherited, such as pathogenic germline variants that are associated with an increased risk of cancer, or acquired, such as somatic mutations that occur during the lifetime of an individual. Understanding the genetic basis of inherited risk of PDAC is essential to advancing patient care and outcomes through improved clinical surveillance, early detection initiatives, and targeted therapies. In this review we discuss factors associated with an increased risk of PDAC, the prevalence of genetic variants associated with an increased risk in patients with PDAC, estimates of PDAC risk in carriers of pathogenic germline variants in genes associated with an increased risk of PDAC. The role of common variants in pancreatic cancer risk will also be discussed.

Atherosclerosis evaluation and cardiovascular risk estimation using coronary computed tomography angiography.

Clinical risk scores based on traditional risk factors of atherosclerosis correlate imprecisely to an individual's complex pathophysiological predisposition to atherosclerosis and provide limited accuracy for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Over the past two decades, computed tomography scanners and techniques for coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) analysis have substantially improved, enabling more precise atherosclerotic plaque quantification and characterization. The accuracy of CCTA for quantifying stenosis and atherosclerosis has been validated in numerous multicentre studies and has shown consistent incremental prognostic value for MACE over the clinical risk spectrum in different populations. Serial CCTA studies have advanced our understanding of vascular biology and atherosclerotic disease progression. The direct disease visualization of CCTA has the potential to be used synergistically with indirect markers of risk to significantly improve prevention of MACE, pending large-scale randomized evaluation.

Integrating social vulnerability into high-resolution global flood risk mapping

High-resolution global flood risk maps are increasingly used to inform disaster risk planning and response, particularly in lower income countries with limited data or capacity. However, current approaches do not adequately account for spatial variation in social vulnerability, which is a key determinant of variation in outcomes for exposed populations. Here we integrate annual average exceedance probability estimates from a high-resolution fluvial flood model with gridded population and poverty data to create a global vulnerability-adjusted risk index for flooding (VARI Flood) at 90-meter resolution. The index provides estimates of relative risk within or between countries and changes how we understand the geography of risk by identifying ‘hotspots’ characterised by high population density and high levels of social vulnerability. This approach, which emphasises risks to human well-being, could be used as a complement to traditional population or asset-centred approaches.

Exposure to Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals and Congenital Heart Diseases: The Pooled Results Based on the Current Evidence.

The relationships between maternal exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and congenital heart diseases (CHD) are not elucidated yet. The exposure levels of EDCs are generally estimated based on self-reported questionnaires or occupational exposure evaluations in the literature. Therefore, a study based on epidemiological data from human biospecimens is required to provide stronger evidence between maternal exposure to EDC and CHD. Embase, Pubmed, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library databases were searched for related research which provided risk estimates regarding the relationships between maternal EDC exposure and CHD in human offspring. Baseline characteristics and outcomes of CHD were extracted from each included study. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled to calculate the overall estimates of CHD. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses were performed to identify the sources of heterogeneity. Bootstrapping techniques were used in analyses where several studies originated from a similar population. A total of seventeen studies were involved in the meta-analyses. Maternal EDC exposure was significantly related to CHD in offspring (OR 2.15; 95%CI 1.64 to 2.83). EDC exposure was significantly associated with septal defects (OR 2.34; 95%CI 1.77 to 3.10), conotruncal defects (OR 2.54; 95%CI 1.89 to 3.43), right ventricular outflow tract obstruction (OR 2.65; 95%CI 1.73 to 4.07), left ventricular outflow tract obstruction (OR 3.58; 95%CI 2.67 to 4.79), anomalous pulmonary venous return (OR 2.31; 95%CI 1.34 to 4.00), and other heart defects (OR 2.49; 95%CI 1.75 to 3.54). In addition, maternal exposure to heavy metals, which included lead (OR 2.19; 95%CI 1.29 to 3.71), cadmium (OR 1.81; 95%CI 1.28 to 2.56), mercury (OR 2.23; 95%CI 1.13 to 4.44), and manganese (OR 2.65; 95%CI 1.48 to 4.74), increased risks for CHD significantly. In conclusion, based on the latest evidence, maternal EDC exposure may increase CHD risks in human offspring, especially in heavy metal exposure conditions.

Occupational exposure to organic solvents and the risk of developing testicular germ cell tumors (TESTIS study): Effect of combined exposure assessment on risk estimation.

Etiological factors of testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) remain largely unknown, but a causal role of occupational exposures to solvents has been suggested. Previous studies analyzing these exposures reported discordant results, potentially related to exposure assessment methods. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of occupational exposure to solvents on the risk of developing TGCT among young men. This study examined occupational exposures to solvents and TGCT risk based on the lifetime work histories of 454 cases and 670 controls, aged 18-45 years, of the French national TESTIS case-control study. Solvent exposure was estimated using: (i) exposure assignment by job-exposure matrix (JEM) and (ii) JEM combined with self-reported exposure data from specific questionnaires (SQ) and expert assessment (EA). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using conditional logistic regression models. Both approaches (JEM and JEM+SQ+EA) showed a consistent association between TGCT and trichloroethylene exposure (exposed versus not exposed; JEM=OR 1.80 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12-2.90] and JEM+SQ+EA= OR 2.59 (95% CI 1.42-4.72). Both approaches also observed positive associations with ketone esters and fuels & petroleum-based solvents. The results suggest that some organic solvents might be involved in the pathogenesis of TGCT among occupationally exposed men. The combined use of JEM+SQ+EA seemed to limit misclassification by considering individual exposure variability and is, therefore, an appealing approach to assess occupational exposures in epidemiological studies.

The Relationship between Knowledge of Clean and Healthy Living Behavior and the Nutritional Status of Stunted Toddlers in West Kupang Regency in 2023

Background: Stunting in toddlers is still a serious health problem in Indonesia. Clean and Healthy Living Behavior (PHBS) is one of the factors that influence the nutritional status of toddlers. Research Objective: To understand the relationship between knowledge of clean and healthy living behavior and the nutritional status of stunted toddlers in West Kupang Regency. Research Method: Using an analytical research design with a chi-square design, this study was conducted by collecting secondary data from the Community Care Network Foundation. The sampling was done using a cluster random sampling technique with a total of 100 respondents. The research was analyzed bivariately using the risk estimate test. Results: The majority of toddler subjects are male. The toddler subjects range in age from 0 to 4 years. The parents of the subjects have educational statuses of elementary school (16%), junior high school (19%), high school/vocational school (49%), and university (16%). The mothers of the subjects have occupations as housewives (85%), civil servants (4%), farmers (4%), and private employees (7%). Respondents with poor knowledge-behavior of clean and healthy living, based on exclusive breastfeeding, account for 19%, poor routine weighing at integrated health posts (Posyandu) 4%, poor childbirth assistance 44%, poor handwashing habits 37%, poor use of clean water 52%, and poor toilet usage 2%. Malnutrition status in toddlers is as follows: 62% underweight (Weight-for-Age), 23% stunted (Weight-for-Height), and 28% underweight (Body Mass Index-for-Age). Bivariate analysis results between knowledge-behavior of clean and healthy living show a significant relationship between exclusive breastfeeding and the use of clean water with the nutritional status of toddlers. Conclusion: There is a significant relationship between exclusive breastfeeding and the use of clean water with the nutritional status of toddlers.

Periviable Premature Rupture of Membranes - Maternal and Neonatal Risks: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Periviable rupture of membranes counseling should describe maternal and neonatal outcomes associated with both immediate delivery and expectant management. Unfortunately, most published data focuses on neonatal outcomes and maternal risk estimates vary widely. We performed a meta-analysis to describe outcomes associated with expectant management compared to immediate delivery of periviable PROM. We performed a search on PubMed, MEDLINE, Web of Science, PROSPERO, Cochrane library, and ClinicalTrials.gov utilizing a combination of key terms. Published clinical trials and observational cohorts were included if published after 2000. Publications were selected if they included maternal and/or neonatal outcomes for both expectant management and immediate delivery. Gestational age range was limited from 14 weeks to 25 weeks. The primary outcome was maternal sepsis. Secondary outcomes included chorioamnionitis, hemorrhage, laparotomy, and neonatal survival. Pooled risk differences were calculated for each outcome using a random effects model. Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Harbord test. A total of 2550 studies were screened. After removal of duplicates and filtering by abstract, 44 manuscripts were reviewed. A total of 5 publications met inclusion for analysis: 4 retrospective and 1 prospective. Overall, 364 (68.0%) women underwent expectant management and 171 (32.0%) underwent immediate delivery. Maternal sepsis was significantly more frequent in the expectant group (RD 4%; 95% CI 2-7%) as was chorioamnionitis (RD 30%; P < 0.01) and any laparotomy (RD 28%; P < 0.01). Neonatal survival in the expectant group was 39% compared to 0% in the immediate group (P < 0.01). Women who undergo expectant management following periviable rupture of membranes experience significantly increased risks of sepsis, chorioamnionitis, and laparotomy. Overall, 39% of neonates survive to discharge. Knowledge of these risks is critical to counseling patients with this diagnosis.

Non-invasive estimation of pulmonary hypertension and clinical deterioration risk in pediatric congenital heart disease: Development and validation of predictive tools.

Non-invasive estimation of pulmonary hypertension and clinical deterioration risk in pediatric congenital heart disease: Development and validation of predictive tools.

Accumulation of Microvascular Target Organ Damage in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Patients Is Associated with Increased Cardiovascular Risk.

Background: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a prototype autoimmune disease associated with increased cardiovascular (CV) burden. Besides increased arterial stiffness and subclinical atherosclerosis, microvascular dysfunction is considered an important component in the pathophysiology of CV disease. However, there is a lack of data regarding the effect of multiple target organ damage (TOD) on CV health. Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate (i) the presence of microvascular changes in SLE in various vascular beds, (ii) the possible associations between the accumulation of microvascular TOD and CV risk and (iii) whether Galectin-3 represents a predictor of combined microvascular TOD. Methods: Participants underwent (i) evaluation of skin microvascular perfusion (laser speckle contrast analysis), (ii) fundoscopy (non-mydriatic fundus camera), (iii) indirect assessment of myocardial perfusion (subendocardial viability ratio) and (iv) determination of urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR). CV risk was calculated using the QResearch Risk Estimator version 3 (QRISK3). Serum Galectin-3 levels were determined. Results: Forty-seven SLE patients and fifty controls were studied. SLE patients demonstrated impaired skin microvascular reactivity (160.2 ± 41.0 vs. 203.6 ± 40.1%), retinal arteriolar narrowing (88.1 ± 11.1 vs. 94.6 ± 13.5 μm) and higher UACR levels compared to controls. Furthermore, SLE individuals had significantly higher Galectin-3 levels [21.5(6.1) vs. 6.6(6.6) ng/dL], QRISK3 scores [7.0(8.6) vs. 1.3(3.6)%] and a greater chance for microvascular dysfunction. In the SLE group, patients with multiple TOD exhibited higher QRISK3. In the multivariate analysis, the accumulation of TOD correlated with disease activity and Galectin-3 (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Our study showed for the first time that SLE patients exhibit a greater number of cases of TOD. The accumulation of TOD was associated with increased CV risk. Clinicians dealing with SLE should be aware and seek microvascular alterations.

Maternal diabetes and risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in offspring in a multinational cohort of 3.6 million mother-child pairs.

Previous studies report an association between maternal diabetes mellitus (MDM) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), often overlooking unmeasured confounders such as shared genetics and environmental factors. We therefore conducted a multinational cohort study with linked mother-child pairs data in Hong Kong, New Zealand, Taiwan, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden to evaluate associations between different MDM (any MDM, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and pregestational diabetes mellitus (PGDM)) and ADHD using Cox proportional hazards regression. We included over 3.6 million mother-child pairs between 2001 and 2014 with follow-up until 2020. Children who were born to mothers with any type of diabetes during pregnancy had a higher risk of ADHD than unexposed children (pooled hazard ratio (HR) = 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08-1.24). Higher risks of ADHD were also observed for both GDM (pooled HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04-1.17) and PGDM (pooled HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.25-1.55). However, siblings with discordant exposure to GDM in pregnancy had similar risks of ADHD (pooled HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.94-1.17), suggesting potential confounding by unmeasured, shared familial factors. Our findings indicate that there is a small-to-moderate association between MDM and ADHD, whereas the association between GDM and ADHD is unlikely to be causal. This finding contrast with previous studies, which reported substantially higher risk estimates, and underscores the need to reevaluate the precise roles of hyperglycemia and genetic factors in the relationship between MDM and ADHD.

Incidence and Risk Factors Epilepsy in Patients with Dementia: A Population-Based Study Using Regional Healthcare Databases in Umbria.

Dementia is prevalent among the elderly, also representing a risk for seizures/epilepsy. Estimations of epilepsy risk in dementia patients are not widely available. Our research aims to ascertain the incidence of epilepsy and its associated risk factors in subjects with dementia in the Umbria region, based on data from healthcare databases. In this retrospective study based on the healthcare administrative database of Umbria, we identified all patients diagnosed with dementia from 2013 to 2017, based on ICD-9-CM codes. For epilepsy ascertainment, we used a validated algorithm that required an EEG and the prescription of one or more anti-seizure medications post-dementia diagnosis. A case-control analysis was conducted, matching five non-dementia subjects by gender and age to each dementia patient. Cox proportional hazards models were then utilized in the analysis. We identified 7,314 dementia cases, also including 35,280 age- and sex-matched control subjects. Out of patients with dementia, 148 individuals (2.02%) were diagnosed with epilepsy. We observed a progressive increase in the cumulative incidence of seizures over time, registering 1.45% in the first year following the diagnosis, and rising to 1.96% after three years. Analysis using Cox regression revealed a significant association between the development of epilepsy and dementia (HR = 4.58, 95% CI = 3.67-5.72). Additional risk factors were male gender (HR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.07-1.69) and a younger age at dementia onset (HR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.96-0.98). Dementia increases epilepsy risk, especially with early onset and male gender. Clinicians should have a low threshold to suspect seizures in dementia cases.

Exploring the association between acute pancreatitis and biliary tract cancer: A large-scale population-based matched cohort study.

Biliary tract cancer (BTC) often goes undetected until its advanced stages, resulting in a poor prognosis. Given the anatomical closeness of the gallbladder and bile ducts to the pancreas, the inflammatory processes triggered by acute pancreatitis might increase the risk of BTC. To assess the association between acute pancreatitis and the risk of BTC. Using the Swedish Pancreatitis Cohort (SwePan), we compared the BTC risk in patients with a first-time episode of acute pancreatitis during 1990-2018 to a 1:10 matched pancreatitis-free control group. Multivariable Cox regression models, stratified by follow-up duration, were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs), adjusting for socioeconomic factors, alcohol use, and comorbidities. BTC developed in 0.94% of 85,027 acute pancreatitis patients and in 0.23% of 814,993 controls. The BTC risk notably increased within 3months of hospital discharge (HR 82.63; 95% CI: 63.07-108.26) and remained elevated beyond 10years of follow-up (HR 1.82; 95% CI: 1.35-2.47). However, the long-term risk of BTC subtypes did not increase with anatomical proximity to the pancreas, with a null association for gallbladder and extrahepatic tumors. Importantly, patients with acute pancreatitis had a higher occurrence of early-stage BTC within 2years of hospital discharge than controls (13.0 vs. 3.6%; p-value <0.01). Our nationwide study found an elevated BTC risk in acute pancreatitis patients; however, the risk estimates for BTC subtypes were inconsistent, thereby questioning the causality of the association. Importantly, the amplified detection of early-stage BTC within 2years after a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis underscores the necessity for proactive BTC surveillance in these patients.

Predictors of recurrence after total thyroidectomy in 1,611 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma: postoperative stimulated serum thyroglobulin and ATA initial and dynamic risk assessment.

Despite a favorable prognosis, some patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) develop recurrence. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of the combination of initial American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification with serum level of postoperative stimulated thyroglobulin (s-Tg) in predicting recurrence in patients with PTC and compare the results with an assessment of response to initial therapy (dynamic risk stratification). We retrospectively analyzed 1,611 patients who had undergone total thyroidectomy for PTC, followed in most cases (87.3%) by radioactive iodine (RAI) administration. Clinicopathological features and s-Tg levels obtained 3 months postoperatively were evaluated. The patients were stratified according to ATA risk categories. Nonstimulated thyroglobulin levels and imaging studies obtained during the first year of follow-up were used to restage the patients based on response to initial therapy. After a mean follow-up of 61.5 months (range 12-246 months), tumor recurrence was diagnosed in 99 (6.1%) patients. According to ATA risk, recurrence was identified in 2.3% of the low-risk, 9% of the intermediate-risk, and 25% of the high-risk patients (p < 0.001). Using a receiver operating characteristic curve approach, a postoperative s-Tg level of 10 ng/mL emerged as the ideal cutoff value, with positive and negative predictive values of 24% and 97.8%, respectively (p < 0.001). Patients with low to intermediate ATA risk with postoperative s-Tg levels < 10 ng/mL and excellent response to treatment had a very low recurrence rate (<0.8%). In contrast, higher recurrence rates were observed in intermediate-riskto high-risk patients with postoperative s-Tg > 10 ng/mL and indeterminate response (25%) and in those with incomplete response regardless of ATA category or postoperative s-Tg value (38.5-87.5%). Using proportion of variance explained (PVE), the predicted recurrence using the ATA initial risk assessment alone was 12.7% and increased to 29.9% when postoperative s-Tg was added to the logistic regression model and 49.1% with dynamic risk stratification. The combination of ATA staging system and postoperative s-Tg can better predict the risk of PTC recurrence. Initial risk estimates can be refined based ondynamic risk assessment following response to therapy, thus providing a useful guide for follow-up recommendations.

The effects of co-existing acridine on adsorption-desorption behavior of carbazole in soils: Co-sorption and mechanism insight

Carbazole (CBZ) and acridine (ACR) are polycyclic aromatic nitrogen heterocycles (PANHs) widely found in combined contaminated soils, while investigations on organic-organic interactions have been very limited. In this study, batch experiments were carried out on five soils with different properties, taking CBZ as a representative of PANHs and ACR as a co-existing contaminant. The adsorption isotherms of CBZ (50–1000 μg/L) were nonlinear. Soil organic matter (SOM) and cation exchange capacity (CEC) showed positive correlations with CBZ adsorption-desorption coefficients. The adsorption mechanisms of CBZ involved hydrogen bonding, π-π interaction, and cation-π bonding. Different concentrations of ACR had varying effects on CBZ. The adsorption of CBZ was inhibited with 250 μg/L ACR. The cooperative adsorption was observed on three soils with increasing ACR concentration (1000 μg/L) and led to more pronounced nonlinear isotherms. The S-shaped isotherms of ACR indicated that ACR was adsorbed to the soil surface in a perpendicular configuration. New adsorption sites were created allowing for increased CBZ adsorption through π-π interaction with ACR. Therefore, variations in soil properties and potential impacts of co-existing contaminants should be well considered when assessing the combined pollution of site soil. This will contribute to a more accurate estimation of environmental and health risks.

NIFTP-adjusted risk estimation of Bethesda thyroid cytology categories should consider the indication for FNA according to TIRADS.

Non-invasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP) was firstly described in 2016. Since NIFTP is thought a non-malignant tumor, the Bethesda system for thyroid cytology proposes two estimations of risk of malignancy of the diagnostic categories, one considering NIFTP as cancer and another one considering it as a benign neoplasm. The present study aimed to review NIFTPs in a single center, re-assess them across categories of three Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data Systems (TIRADSs), and define the indication for biopsy according to the category-specific size cut-offs. The study period was from 2017 to 2023. The institutional database was searched for histologically proven NIFTPs with preoperative ultrasound images. NIFTPs were re-assessed according to the American College of Radiology (ACR), European (EU), and Korean (K) TIRADSs. The indication for biopsy was defined according to TIRADS category-specific size threshold. Twenty NIFTPs from 19 patients were included. The median size of the NIFTPs was 23 mm. According to ultrasound, 80-85% of NIFTPs were at low-intermediate risk and 5-15% at high risk without significant difference among the tree TIRADSs (p = 0.91). The indication for FNA, according to three TIRADSs, was found in 52-58% of cases with no significant difference among systems (p = 0.96). NIFTPs have heterogeneous presentation according to TIRADSs with very low indication rate for FNA.

Endothelial function in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors is not related to cardiovascular risk assessed by SCORE2 algorithm.

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) revolutionized the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) but are endowed with negative effects on endothelial function. To characterize endothelial function in patients with CML treated with various TKIs. Forty-eight patients diagnosed with chronic phase CML treated with TKIs, such as imatinib, bosutinib, nilotinib, ponatinib, and asciminib were included. Endothelial function was assessed in the brachial artery and microcirculation based on flow-mediated dilation (FMD), reactive hyperemia peripheral arterial tonometry (RH-PAT) and Flow Mediated Skin Fluorescence (FMSF). Reactive Hyperemia Index (RHI), FMD [%], Reactive Hyperemia Response (RHR [%]), Normoxia Oscillatory index (NOI [%]) and Hyperemic Response index (HR index [%]) did not differentiate between the group of patients with low / moderate risk in the Systemic Coronary Risk Estimation 2 (SCORE2), SCORE2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) and those with high / very high-risk scores. Among patients with low/intermediate risk based on the SCORE2 algorithms, some had lower (<Q1) values of endothelial parameters, reflecting impaired endothelial function, when compared with the whole population. Lower values of endothelial function parameters were associated with overall long-term treatment with TKIs or ponatinib treatment. Importantly, endothelial function assessed by FMSF (RHR [%]) negatively correlated with the total duration of TKI treatment, also after adjustment for age. Endothelial function in CML patients treated with TKIs was not related to cardiovascular risk based on SCORE2/SCORE2-OP algorithms but CML-specific factors, including duration of TKI treatment. FMSF-based assessment of skin microcirculation was a sensitive method for detecting the vascular effects of TKIs.